Georgia seeks upset of No. 20 Mississippi State
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/11/2012 - Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A good old-fashioned dog fight will take place in Starkville today, as SEC foes Georgia and Mississippi State do battle at Humphrey Coliseum.
Georgia comes in with an overall record of 11-12, and the team's 2-7 conference mark has it just a game above last-place South Carolina in the SEC standings. The Bulldogs did manage to put one in the win column the last time out, as they whipped visiting Arkansas in an 81-59 final on Wednesday night. Georgia is just 1-6 in true road games this season, and the team has lost its last four trips away from Athens.
Mississippi State comes into the weekend sporting an impressive 19-5 mark, and the team has won six of its first nine league bouts. As a result, the Bulldogs are ranked 20th in the most recent AP poll, and they'll be hoping to improve upon their near-perfect 14-1 home mark with a win today. MSU has won its last two games, the most recent being a 70-60 decision at home over bitter rival Ole Miss, and coach Rick Stansbury's squad has won four of its last five bouts overall.
Mississippi State owns a narrow 52-50 lead in the all-time series with Georgia, but it was the latter that won the last encounter, shooting the lights out in claiming an 86-64 triumph on January 22, 2011 in Athens.
Gerald Robinson went off in Georgia's recent rout of Arkansas, as he hit 10- of-13 field goal attempts in scoring a career-high 27 points. He also added six rebounds and five assists to his stat line, and the Bulldogs wound up shooting 52.6 percent from the floor and putting another three players in double figures. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope drained three of the team's nine three-pointers on the night as he added 18 points, Nemanja Djurisic contributed 14 points off the bench, and Marcus Thornton chipped in 10 points for a Georgia team that not only performed at the offensive end, but dialed up the defense as well in limiting the Razorbacks to 36.7 percent field goal efficiency, all while easily winning the rebounding battle, 44-21. Caldwell- Pope and Robinson are the team's only double-digit scorers on the season, and only a tenth of a point separates them at the moment (14.2 to 14.1 ppg). The last game not withstanding, the 'Dawgs have struggled to find their stroke this year, shooting just 39.4 percent from the field, while defensively allowing the opposition to net 63.0 ppg on 42.0 percent field goal efficiency.
Arnett Moultrie was his usual productive self in Mississippi State's recent win over Ole Miss, as the junior forward scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds in playing a game-high 37 minutes. Moultrie wasn't alone in his pursuit of excellence, as point guard Dee Bost logged a double-double consisting of 15 points and 13 assists, Renardo Sidney added 14 points and seven boards, and Rodney Hood finished with 10 points and six rebounds. The Bulldogs won the battle on the boards, 38-33, and hit nine three-pointers to only three for the Rebels. Moultrie is one of a handful of players averaging a double-double this late in the season, as he accounts for 17.0 points and 11.0 caroms per contest, while Bost (15.8 ppg, 5.1 apg), Hood (11.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Sidney (10.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have all been consistent contributors as well. As a team, MSU is scoring a healthy 73.7 ppg in hitting 46.5 percent of its total shots and 36.8 percent of its long-range launches, while at the other end allowing foes to net 66.4 ppg behind typical shooting outputs of 43.0 percent overall and 34.3 percent from beyond the arc. The team is +3.9 in rebounding margin, but -0.6 in turnover differential.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.